流年

Politics this week【0716】

木头哥哥 — Sun, 17 Jul 2011 16:27:00 +0800

Jul 14th 2011

Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation withdrew its controversial bid to take full control of BSkyB, Britain’s biggest satellite-television broadcaster. This followed Mr Murdoch’s

abrupt closure of the News of the World, a tabloid whose journalistic malpractice has damaged his company. Amid further rumours and revelations, David Cameron came under

more pressure for having once employed the journalist who is central to the allegations as his communications director. See article

As many as 129 people were feared to have drowned when an overcrowded tourist boat capsized and sank on Russia’s Volga river.

Deputies belonging to Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party agreed to take their parliamentary oaths, ending a two-week dispute. But 36 deputies backed by the pro-

Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party continued to boycott parliament over the imprisonment of five colleagues. See article

The defence minister and military chief of Cyprus resigned after an explosion at a naval base that killed 13 people, including the head of the navy. Hundreds of protesters attempted

to storm the presidential palace, accusing the authorities of negligence.

Marvellous Mauricio

Mauricio Macri won the first round of the mayoral election in Buenos Aires with 47% of the vote. The conservative incumbent is the clear favourite to beat Daniel Filmus, the chosen

candidate of Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, in a run-off on July 31st.

Facundo Cabral, an Argentine folk singer, was shot dead two days after giving a performance in Guatemala. Local authorities say that his promoter was the target of the attack.

Two suspects have been detained.

Mexico’s Supreme Court ruled that soldiers charged with human-rights abuses should be tried in civilian rather than military courts. Pressure groups argue that the military justice

system is ineffective and promotes impunity. Hundreds of abuse complaints have been filed since the army was deployed to fight drug gangs in 2006.

Miners at Chile’s state-owned copper giant, Codelco, went on strike to protest against job cuts and an overhaul of benefits. Their union warned that the changes are the first steps

towards privatisation.

Talking the talk

Negotiations rumbled on between the White House and Congress on raising America’s federal-debt ceiling. As the discussions became increasingly acrimonious, credit-rating

agencies reiterated warnings that they are prepared to downgrade American debt if the impasse remains. See article

Texas caused a diplomatic furore by executing Humberto Leal García, a Mexican national convicted of murdering a 16-year-old girl. The International Court of Justice has ruled

that foreign nationals must be granted access to consular advice when arrested, which García was denied. Mexico condemned his execution. García had lived in America since the

age of two.

Leon Panetta paid his first visit as American defence secretary to Afghanistan and Iraq. In Baghdad the former CIA boss urged the Iraqi government to choose whether it wants a

contingent of American troops to stay in the country after the end of the year, when the United States is due to withdraw its forces.

Terror returns

Indian cities were put on high alert after three bombs exploded in Mumbai during the rush hour, killing at least 17 people and injuring scores more. It was the worst terrorist

incident in India’s financial capital since a co-ordinated attack by gunmen in 2008. See article

Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, reshuffled his cabinet but left his most senior ministers in place. His flashy former environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, moved to rural

affairs.

Ahmed Wali Karzai, a half-brother to the president of Afghanistan and the pre-eminent power-broker in Kandahar, was assassinated at his residence by a trusted lieutenant. His

death leaves a void at the centre of one of the country’s most restive provinces. See article

America announced that it is to suspend $800m from the security funding it gives to Pakistan, which includes money to root out the Taliban along the Afghan border. Relations

between America and Pakistan have become ever more strained since the raid that killed Osama bin Laden in May. Pakistan has kicked out American military advisers—and says it

may now withdraw forces from the borderlands. See article

Australia’s government unveiled plans for a carbon tax to take effect in July 2012, which would charge A$23 ($25) per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted by each of the country’s

heaviest polluters. The previous government collapsed because of its failure to pass a climate-change bill. Resistance to the new tax is widespread. See article

At least 20,000 people marched through Kuala Lumpur, in the biggest demonstration in Malaysia’s capital for years. The protesters were demanding electoral reforms; many were

arrested. See article

Three Catholic bishops went missing in China, days before they were due to appear at a state-sanctioned ordination ceremony. Their disappearance comes amid heightened tension

between China’s government and the Vatican.

Walk like an Egyptian

Thousands of Egyptians marched in central Cairo to demand the removal of the ruling military council and to call for faster political reform. Meanwhile, 700 police officers

implicated in the killing of protesters in January and February were sacked.

The American and French ambassadors in Syria visited the embattled city of Hama to protest against an ongoing government crackdown. In response, mobs attacked their

embassies in Damascus.

Israel’s parliament passed a law that would punish any Israeli person or organisation advocating a boycott of goods from Jewish settlements on the West Bank. Israeli human-rights

groups say the law undermines freedom of speech.

South Sudan celebrated, as it became independent from Sudan on July 9th. The United Nations soon admitted the country as its 193rd member.

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The lowest low【0709】

木头哥哥 — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 18:18:00 +0800

The phone-hacking scandal
The phone-hacking saga jeopardises more than merely the News of the World: it threatens Rupert Murdoch, the press as a whole, the police and politicians

UNTIL this week, the victims in the scandal over the illegal hacking of mobile-phone messages by the News of the World seemed mostly to be celebrities, royals and others too privileged to command much sympathy. For the tabloid, that was a useful mitigation in the court of public opinion, if not in law. No longer. The sordid antics of Britain's biggest-selling Sunday paper-owned by News International, Rupert Murdoch's British newspaper outfit-look more promiscuous and more gravely criminal. And the circle of blame and taint is widening.

The big difference is Milly Dowler, a 13-year-old schoolgirl who was murdered in Surrey in March 2002. On July 4th the Guardian reported allegations that Glenn Mulcaire, a private investigator working with News of the World journalists, hacked into Dowler's voice-mail in the days after her disappearance, removing some messages to free up space when her account became full. The effect was to make her family think she might still be alive. The relatives of people killed in the terrorist attacks in London of July 2005, and of soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, might also have been targeted. Ditto the families of two girls murdered in Cambridgeshire in 2002: in a bizarre cameo in what is an increasingly baroque saga, the actor Hugh Grant made that link in April, in a covertly recorded interview with a former journalist. Tom Watson, a Labour MP, made an even more serious charge in Parliament on July 6th: that News International paid people to interfere in a murder case "on behalf of known criminals". The firm says it doesn't understand that accusation.

Mr Mulcaire was jailed in 2007 for hacking voice-mail messages of members of the royal household, along with Clive Goodman, the News of the World's royal correspondent. At the time, and for a long time afterwards, executives at News International insisted that Mr Goodman was a lone, rogue operator. In the past few months that defence has collapsed, amid a deluge of civil cases brought by the lengthening list of hacking victims, pay-offs, and the arrest of more journalists. Yet the Dowler development has supercharged the scandal-not just because of its callous immorality but also because it potentially involves perversion of the course of justice, a new level of criminality.

Hanging separately

If much of this is true, there were no qualms, and few limits, in the way the paper went after scoops. There might be serious legal and commercial consequences for News International. But others have been discredited, too-not least the police.

On July 5th News International acknowledged that, last month, it gave the Metropolitan Police a set of e-mails documenting (illegal) payments to police officers from News of the World journalists in 2003 and after. That is only the latest aspersion cast on various police forces by this affair. The police in Surrey seem to have known about the Dowler hacking but overlooked it. Worse, the Met itself stands accused of failing for several years to notify potential victims of hacking and failing to pursue leads: the evidence for many recent allegations comes from notes seized from Mr Mulcaire in 2006. The Met launched a fresh probe, under new command, in January. But its contacting of targets remains mystifyingly lacklustre.

Whether intentionally or otherwise (News International says it wasn't), the news about police payments deflected attention onto Andy Coulson, the News of the World's editor from 2003 to 2007-and thus, indirectly onto David Cameron. Mr Coulson resigned from the paper in 2007 after Mr Goodman and Mr Mulcaire were convicted, though he insisted that he knew nothing of their nefarious methods. He resigned again, this time from his job as Mr Cameron's communications chief, in January this year, as the hacking scandal escalated. Mr Cameron's judgment in hiring Mr Coulson after his tabloid escapades now looks ropier than ever (see Bagehot).As it happens, Mr Coulson's predecessor as editor, and News International's current chief executive, Rebekah Brooks (above, with Mr Murdoch), is a close friend of Mr Cameron, too. Mrs Brooks was in the editor's chair in 2002; if the latest hacking allegations stand up, her position looks at least as compromised as Mr Coulson's was in 2007. But, so far, she has rebuffed calls for her resignation, declaring herself "shocked" at the latest charges and promising to "vigorously pursue the truth". Critics wonder whether Mrs Brooks, who has in the past been insouciantly unco-operative with parliamentary inquiries into phone-hacking, or indeed anyone else at News International, with its history of collective obfuscation, is well-placed to do that.

For the moment, at least, Mrs Brooks appears to be protected by what insiders describe as an intense, almost familial bond with Mr Murdoch, who is said to prize her business acumen and contacts: Mr Murdoch this week called the recent allegations "deplorable", but stood by her. Events might yet test just how much their bond is worth. Public anger has already persuaded several advertisers to suspend their dealings with the News of the World; some readers may choose to boycott it.

Still, Claire Enders, a media analyst, thinks the commercial impact is likely to be modest, given the paper's dominance in the Sunday newspaper market. Much worse, for Mr Murdoch, is the slim chance that the scandal might affect his bid to buy the rest of BSkyB, a hugely profitable satellite broadcaster in which News Corporation, his parent company, already has a 39% stake. Jeremy Hunt, the culture secretary, looked set finally to approve the deal after a consultation on its impact on media plurality ends on July 8th. Meanwhile Ofcom, the broadcasting regulator, is obliged to consider whether the holders of broadcasting licences are "fit and proper". It is "closely monitoring the situation".

In the gutter

And it isn't only the Murdoch press that is set to feel the backlash. Whereas in America journalism is a respectable, even venerated profession, in Britain it has always been regarded as grubby. But it has rarely been so reviled as now. Ed Miliband, the leader of the Labour Party, wants a public inquiry into the culture and regulation of the press; Mr Cameron agrees that there ought to be one or more inquiries, after criminal proceedings are over. One result might be a change to the current model of newspaper self-regulation; the Press Complaints Commission, the toothless body responsible for it, has handled the hacking affair woefully.

Most MPs were in the past much more diplomatic about the press, especially the Murdoch stable, which, so exaggerated legend had it, could decide the fate of governments. But the calculus for politicians has suddenly shifted. Mr Miliband's tough stance towards News International-he joined the clamour for Mrs Brooks's resignation-would have been unthinkable in the Blair years. Mr Cameron shied away from calling for his friend's head too, but described the allegations as "truly dreadful". And there may be more to come in this mad, metastasising story.

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Berlusconi‘s bung【0709】

木头哥哥 — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 03:01:00 +0800

Italy and austerity
The failure of a shameless budget manoeuvre by the prime minister

NOTHING illustrates better the gulf between Italy's multi-billionaire prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, and the people that he governs than the impact of Italy's emergency budget, introduced on June 30th. For most Italians, it meant sacrifices running to hundreds of euros. For Mr Berlusconi, it promised savings of hundreds of millions.

In total the cabinet approved deficit-cutting measures of euro40 billion ($55 billion). The finance minister, Giulio Tremonti, wanted to dispel any spectre of a Greek collapse in Italy. But he is under pressure, especially from Mr Berlusconi's coalition partners in the Northern League, to consider the political consequences. Alarmed by the ruling parties' dismal showing at local elections in May, the League's leader, Umberto Bossi, has called for a U-turn: tax cuts funded by drastic cuts focused on defence spending.

The four-year austerity budget is a compromise. Mr Tremonti got his deficit reductions. Yet all but euro6 billion of the tax rises and spending cuts will take effect after 2012, hinting that there may be an election next year, before they bite. Mr Bossi got a promise of lower income tax, accompanied by a hint that the shortfall may be made good by a gradual rise in VAT.

That would hit the poor harder than the rich. But as the details became known, there was even worse news for the less well-off, including many of Mr Berlusconi's (and even more of Mr Bossi's) voters: increased health charges and a freeze on cost-of-living increases for higher-value state pensions. More cuts must be made by local and regional authorities, which are set to lose euro10 billion in central-government transfers. The budget also includes a rise in the flat-rate stamp duty on government bonds that have for years formed the core of every middle-class Italian saver's portfolio, which could sharply reduce their net returns.

These are tough times in southern Europe. Italy's public debt will top 120% of GDP this year. It cannot afford to run a big deficit. The government argues that everyone must bear some pain. Unsurprisingly, then, there was outrage (even privately among ministers) when it emerged that, for the prime minister himself, the budget contained not pain but an analgesic of monstrous proportions.

The biggest threat to Mr Berlusconi was never his various trials, even if some could still cause trouble. His main financial worry is a civil action brought against Fininvest, the firm at the heart of his business empire, by a company belonging to his long-standing rival, Carlo De Benedetti. The case arose after the battle over Mondadori, Italy's biggest publishing house, in the early 1990s. Three Fininvest lawyers were found to have bribed a judge for a favourable court verdict. Mr De Benedetti wants compensation. A lower court decided he should have euro750m: big bucks, even by Mr Berlusconi's standards.

A clause tucked into the 100-odd pages of the emergency budget offered him some respite by letting any defendant liable to pay compensation of more than euro20m suspend payment until completing Italy's two-stage appeal procedure. In a system notorious for delay, that could take years. Amid reports that neither Mr Tremonti nor the League was told of this clause, the prime minister withdrew it, decrying his critics'"shameless exaggeration". Even before this week, it was not easy to see how Mr Berlusconi could reverse the steady decline in his popularity in time for the next election. Now it looks harder.

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No applause, please【0709】

木头哥哥 — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 02:49:00 +0800

Belarus's crackdown
A hardline president is having to cope with a collapsing economy

ORDINARY dictators like applause. These days Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the demagogic and authoritarian president of Belarus, cannot stand it. Every Wednesday a few hundred people come out on the streets of Belarusian cities and wordlessly clap their hands. They may not shout slogans, but everybody knows what it is they are silent about.

Unlike the thousands-strong protest last December brutally put down by Mr Lukashenka, the clapping protests are modest in scale. And though their organisers talk of "a revolution through social networks" their real point is to demonstrate the protesters' courage and Mr Lukashenka's paranoia. Each Wednesday plain-clothed thugs with earpieces swarm the streets of Minsk dragging people out of crowds and pushing them into security vans parked in side streets with their licence plates covered.

During celebrations of Belarus's independence day on July 3rd, the police said that any applause other than to war veterans would be considered an offence. So nobody applauded Mr Lukashenka's combative speech. But even those, including journalists, who just gathered at one of the city's squares were arrested.

Anatoly Lebedko, an opposition leader who spent several months in a KGB cell in Minsk after December's election, says Mr Lukashenka has lost the support of most of the population and also Russia's unconditional backing. His popularity rating has plunged from 53% in December to 29% last month, according to an independent opinion poll.

This is not surprising. The economy is teetering on the brink of collapse. With inflation hitting 35% and the currency having lost half its value, most people feel a lot poorer. There are restrictions on the sale of hard currency. People are queuing for weeks to change Belarusian roubles. And though fear and an inured tolerance of hardship tend to stifle protests, there are reports of strikes at some Belarusian plants.

The country's Soviet-style command economy was never efficient and could be sustained only by foreign credit and huge Russian subsidies in the form of cheap energy and the ability to buy discounted Russian oil and sell on refined products at a markup. In the past five years Russia's subsidy has fallen from the equivalent of 20% of GDP to only 7%.

But it was last year's election that made the situation critical. To bribe voters, Mr Lukashenka raised salaries and social spending. State firms went on a borrowing spree. After violently suppressing protests and taking many political prisoners, Mr Lukashenka cut Belarus off from Western support. Leonid Zlotnikov, an economist, says Belarus needs to find monthly payments of over $1 billion to service its debts. Its foreign-exchange reserves are down to a month's worth of imports. "The economy is choking," Mr Zlotnikov says. And the Kremlin, which gave Mr Lukashenka a boost just before the election and recognised its result despite the violence, is not rushing to the rescue-albeit for cynical and pragmatic reasons.

Having spent $50 billion propping up Mr Lukashenka over the past decade, the Kremlin now wants something back, such as gas pipelines, perhaps, or refineries and chemical plants. Alexei Kudrin, Russia's finance minister, has said that he would agree to a rescue credit line only if Belarus privatised assets worth $7.5 billion. Mr Lukashenka resists giving up economic control. But as Oleg Manaev, an independent sociologist, says, "Lukashenka's fate is no longer in his own hands".

The Kremlin may not want to topple Mr Lukashenka yet because it fears that, without him, Belarus could rush towards the West. He is also a useful bogeyman who makes Russia's own leaders seem more civilised and democratic. The Russian tactic, it seems, is to keep Mr Lukashenka just above the surface, occasionally dipping him in and then pulling him out to make sure he is still breathing. But if the Kremlin miscalculates and keeps Mr Lukashenka under a moment too long, it could inadvertently provoke a more serious revolt. Then the applause would become deafening.

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Back to partisanship【0709】

木头哥哥 — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 01:03:00 +0800

Hungary's European Union presidency
A return to divisive politics after a modestly successful EU presidency

JUST as the scion of a vanished dynasty departs, parts of its old empire rise anew. Otto von Habsburg, once heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian empire, died this week at the age of 98, days after Hungary handed the rotating European Union presidency to its neighbour, Poland (see Charlemagne). As a member of the European Parliament, he promoted the EU aspirations of central Europe. He would have rejoiced that another former family domain, Croatia, is now ready to join. Indeed, Hungary's Fidesz government is proud that on June 30th, its last day in charge, the EU completed negotiations with Croatia, which is expected to accede in July 2013. Hungarian officials also point with satisfaction to an almost-done deal on economic governance and to EU-wide Roma and Danube strategies. The hope is that the Poles will sustain this momentum to speed the accession of Serbia and other Balkan countries, says Zoltan Kovacs, the state secretary for communications.

Others are less laudatory. Hungary's presidency was a modest success, says one diplomat. The Lisbon treaty created a permanent president of the European Council and a foreign-policy supremo, leaving less scope for agenda-setting. "There was a mixed level of expertise. They learnt on the job. Hungary met its headline priorities, got a lot of what it wanted and there were no hideous disasters."

Yet the rosy glow over the Danube may prove short-lived. Hungary's presidency was marred by criticism of Fidesz's new media law and constitution. Complaints about excessive centralisation of power are returning. Visiting Budapest last month, Hillary Clinton, America's secretary of state, called for "a real commitment to the independence of the judiciary, a free press and government transparency." Freedom House, an American-based lobby group, talks of "the most significant backslide in Hungary's democratic development since 1989". The Venice Commission, which advises the Council of Europe on constitutional matters, worries about "cardinal laws" in the constitution that require a two-thirds parliamentary majority to be changed. Some deal with economic matters such as pensions and public debt.

The European Parliament has asked the European Commission to review the constitution, saying it fails to protect basic rights. The Hungarian government rejects this as political mischief-making and says the watchdogs do not listen. Tibor Navracsics, the justice minister, invited the Venice Commission himself, says Mr Kovacs. "There were cardinal laws under the old constitution and there will be two fewer under the new one," he insists.

Yet the doubts will not go away. When Wen Jiabao, China's premier, visited Budapest recently all Tibetans in Hungary were called to the immigration authorities to have their papers checked. Anyone suspected of violent or organised crime, or abuse of power, can under a new law be held for five days without charge, and prosecutors can choose which court should hear their cases. Even judges say the new legislation may be unconstitutional; civil-liberties groups say it may breach Hungary's international obligations.

By coincidence (or not), three senior intelligence figures have just been arrested, causing consternation among the chattering classes. They are Sandor Laborc, a former head of the domestic security service, Lajos Galambos, his predecessor, and Gyorgy Szilvassy, a former Socialist minister in charge of the secret services. All three have now been released (Mr Galambos to house arrest); all protest their innocence. But officials refuse to provide any details of the cases or the charges.

Received wisdom has long held that the big guns of Fidesz and the Socialists would not fire on each other, for fear of retaliation. Yet if such a pact ever existed, it has now gone. Mr Szilvassy is a close ally of Ferenc Gyurcsany, the former Socialist prime minister. Hungarian politics is entering a new, more ruthless era.

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No applause, please【0709】

木头哥哥 — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 14:23:00 +0800

Belarus's crackdown
A hardline president is having to cope with a collapsing economy
Don't clap, son

ORDINARY dictators like applause. These days Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the demagogic and authoritarian president of Belarus, cannot stand it. Every Wednesday a few hundred people come out on the streets of Belarusian cities and wordlessly clap their hands. They may not shout slogans, but everybody knows what it is they are silent about.

Unlike the thousands-strong protest last December brutally put down by Mr Lukashenka, the clapping protests are modest in scale. And though their organisers talk of "a revolution through social networks" their real point is to demonstrate the protesters' courage and Mr Lukashenka's paranoia. Each Wednesday plain-clothed thugs with earpieces swarm the streets of Minsk dragging people out of crowds and pushing them into security vans parked in side streets with their licence plates covered.

During celebrations of Belarus's independence day on July 3rd, the police said that any applause other than to war veterans would be considered an offence. So nobody applauded Mr Lukashenka's combative speech. But even those, including journalists, who just gathered at one of the city's squares were arrested.

Anatoly Lebedko, an opposition leader who spent several months in a KGB cell in Minsk after December's election, says Mr Lukashenka has lost the support of most of the population and also Russia's unconditional backing. His popularity rating has plunged from 53% in December to 29% last month, according to an independent opinion poll.

This is not surprising. The economy is teetering on the brink of collapse. With inflation hitting 35% and the currency having lost half its value, most people feel a lot poorer. There are restrictions on the sale of hard currency. People are queuing for weeks to change Belarusian roubles. And though fear and an inured tolerance of hardship tend to stifle protests, there are reports of strikes at some Belarusian plants.

The country's Soviet-style command economy was never efficient and could be sustained only by foreign credit and huge Russian subsidies in the form of cheap energy and the ability to buy discounted Russian oil and sell on refined products at a markup. In the past five years Russia's subsidy has fallen from the equivalent of 20% of GDP to only 7%.

But it was last year's election that made the situation critical. To bribe voters, Mr Lukashenka raised salaries and social spending. State firms went on a borrowing spree. After violently suppressing protests and taking many political prisoners, Mr Lukashenka cut Belarus off from Western support. Leonid Zlotnikov, an economist, says Belarus needs to find monthly payments of over $1 billion to service its debts. Its foreign-exchange reserves are down to a month's worth of imports. "The economy is choking," Mr Zlotnikov says. And the Kremlin, which gave Mr Lukashenka a boost just before the election and recognised its result despite the violence, is not rushing to the rescue-albeit for cynical and pragmatic reasons.

Having spent $50 billion propping up Mr Lukashenka over the past decade, the Kremlin now wants something back, such as gas pipelines, perhaps, or refineries and chemical plants. Alexei Kudrin, Russia's finance minister, has said that he would agree to a rescue credit line only if Belarus privatised assets worth $7.5 billion. Mr Lukashenka resists giving up economic control. But as Oleg Manaev, an independent sociologist, says, "Lukashenka's fate is no longer in his own hands".

The Kremlin may not want to topple Mr Lukashenka yet because it fears that, without him, Belarus could rush towards the West. He is also a useful bogeyman who makes Russia's own leaders seem more civilised and democratic. The Russian tactic, it seems, is to keep Mr Lukashenka just above the surface, occasionally dipping him in and then pulling him out to make sure he is still breathing. But if the Kremlin miscalculates and keeps Mr Lukashenka under a moment too long, it could inadvertently provoke a more serious revolt. Then the applause would become deafening.

博客大巴，你的个人传媒早班车

Back to partisanship【0709】

木头哥哥 — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 13:57:00 +0800

博客大巴，你的个人传媒早班车

That guilty look【0709】

木头哥哥 — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 13:53:00 +0800

America's judicial system
Is it time to end the perp walk?
How it was in May

IT WAS one thing for the French public to hear that Dominique Strauss-Kahn had been arrested. It was quite another to see him grim-faced, handcuffed and in the custody of New York detectives. To Americans, this was just the "perp walk".

This practice gives the newspapers and television images for stories and lets police and prosecutors show off the big game they bagged. J. Edgar Hoover, first head of the FBI, paraded arrested mobsters before the cameras. Lee Harvey Oswald, Kennedy's assassin, was killed during a perp walk. It was a favourite tactic of Rudy Giuliani when he was a federal prosecutor.

It also has critics. Nat Hentoff, a journalist and civil libertarian, says that "under such circumstances even Mother Teresa would look extremely suspicious, especially if her hands were cuffed behind her back." Jack King, of the National Association of Criminal Defence Lawyers, says perp walks "run counter...to the presumption of innocence." Even Michael Bloomberg, New York's mayor, now disapproves. But this amounts to polite throat-clearing compared with the outrage on the other side of the pond.

Elisabeth Guigou, a former French justice minister, called the images of DSK "incredibly brutal, violent and cruel". Jean-Pierre Chevenement, a senator, condemned an "appalling global lynching". Eva Joly, a Green presidential hopeful, said that America had "a much more violent judicial system" than France.

If she means adversarial, she is correct. American trials pit two lawyers and two narratives against each other; a jury decides which is more plausible. The French have juries only in the most serious cases (including rape). Defendants lack fifth-amendment protections. Adversarialism may mean Mr Strauss-Kahn was roughed up in a way he would not have been in France; but it also meant that, when his accuser was found to be unreliable, the case began to collapse.

Hence a final argument against perp walks: they can be risky for prosecutors. Contrary to many French objections, Cyrus Vance, Manhattan's district attorney, has behaved well. He dealt fast with a serious allegation against a rich suspect who was about to leave the country for one with which America has only a limited extradition treaty. He also moved quickly when the case against that suspect began crumbling. As for pictures of Mr Strauss-Kahn in handcuffs, the French may see a famous politician treated like a common criminal. Mr Vance-and the New York voters who elect him-may see another high-profile suspect whom he failed to convict.

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He can‘t hide, but can he run?【0709】

木头哥哥 — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 03:08:00 +0800

France and Dominique Strauss-Kahn
More extraordinary twists in the DSK affair grip France-and create fresh agonies in the Socialist Party

LESS than two months ago Dominique Strauss-Kahn, favourite in the polls for next year's French presidential election, was locked up in a New York jail and on suicide watch, after his arrest on charges of attempted rape and sexual assault. Now, just as the French had faced up to his disqualification from public life, the case against the former IMF boss seems close to collapse. A Manhattan judge's decision on July 1st to free DSK, as he is known, from house arrest, amid doubts about the credibility of his accuser, has again knocked France sideways.

The latest episode in this torrid saga involving power, money, sex, politics and transatlantic incomprehension came from revelations about the plaintiff, a hotel maid. The district attorney's office in New York catalogued a devastating string of lies: on her application for asylum, on her tax return, to the housing authorities, to a grand jury and, repeatedly, to the prosecutors, including over what happened in the hotel after the alleged assault on May 14th. A report in the New York Times claims she made a phone call to a jailed man a day later, in which she discussed potential financial gain; he and others had deposited some $100,000 into her bank account over the past two years.

Such revelations leave the accuser's credibility in tatters, whether or not her account of what took place in the hotel room is true. The maid's lawyer, Kenneth Thompson, insists that "she has never once changed a single thing" in her story of the sexual assault. And DNA evidence suggests that a sexual encounter did indeed take place. Yet the case still looks likely to fall apart. It could even be dismissed ahead of Mr Strauss-Kahn's next scheduled court appearance on July 18th.

For the French, stunned yet again by the DSK affair, the most pressing question is whether he might be able to revive his political career, and even his presidential hopes. Recent history suggests that nobody is disqualified forever from French politics-Alain Juppe, now foreign minister, was once convicted of political corruption. On paper, nominations for the Socialist presidential primary are due to close on July 13th. But various party leaders, including Martine Aubry, the Socialists' boss and herself a candidate, have made clear that this timetable could be stretched.

The French are divided over a possible comeback. At best, 49% want him to have a political future, with 45% against. At worst, 54% say they do not want him to run in the Socialist primary. The French were indignant over the "perp walk", which they regard as a humiliating breach of the presumption of innocence (see article). There is sympathy for a man some thought destined for the presidency being brought down by an aggressive American judicial system. DSK's friends on the left sounded triumphant at the collapsing case. Bernard-Henri Levy, a celebrity intellectual, this week called his treatment "obscene" and "pornographic". Even the French media, which had pronounced his political death, now talk of a possible resurrection.Moreover, conspiracy theories are flying around yet again. One Socialist deputy says that "something does not quite add up" in the link between Accor, the French group that owns the Sofitel hotel in New York, where the alleged assault took place and which said the maid was "completely satisfactory", and security contacts in the Elysee Palace. Claude Gueant, the interior minister, described as "odious" the idea that such contacts constituted anything other than communication of the facts. Accor also denies claims of interference. But from the start, 57% of the French public has seen DSK's arrest as part of a plot, so denials are unlikely to quell rumours. In April, in a discussion about dirty tricks with Liberation, a leftist newspaper, Mr Strauss-Kahn even speculated about a scenario in which "a woman [that he had supposedly raped] in a car park would be promised euro500,000 to invent such a story."

Sympathy for DSK has, however, to be set against distaste at the wider revelations about his way of life. Polls suggest that women and older voters have the biggest reservations. Many French voters who find ostentatious wealth obnoxious have been taken aback to see DSK flaunt his fabulous riches. They also know that the collapse of the case does not prove there was no sexual encounter. Mr Strauss-Kahn's lawyers have stated only that there was "no element of forcible compulsion". This week the maid sued the New York Post for reporting that she was a prostitute. Whatever the nature of the encounter, one French left-wing editor, Laurent Joffrin, puts it well: "you do not take such risks when one seeks the highest office".

More troubling still, Mr Strauss-Kahn faces charges for attempted rape in France. This week Tristane Banon, a writer, filed a lawsuit against him for an alleged assault in 2003. She did not press charges at the time, partly on the advice of her mother, a Socialist politician. Under French law, she can sue for attempted rape up to ten years after the event (though only three years after a sexual assault). Mr Strauss-Kahn's arrest has emboldened many women besides Ms Banon to break France's code of silence over sexual assault. Many talk of a "before and after DSK". Calls to a rape hotline jumped nearly 30% following his arrest. Georges Tron, a minister, lost his job in late May after two former employees accused him of sexual assault following foot-massage sessions, charges that he denies.

The Socialist Party is in a fix. Its leaders are publicly leaving the door open to DSK. But they had turned the page and inherited most of his poll lead over Mr Sarkozy. Ms Aubry has said that she will "go all the way". Francois Hollande, the front-runner, is also unlikely to drop out. "I don't think DSK can return, even if he wants to, which itself isn't clear," says a Socialist insider. And if he does not run, it is not obvious that he would be an asset to the campaign of any other Socialist candidate either. Mr Strauss-Kahn may be close to escaping the clutches of the American justice system, but the attempted rape case going before French investigators has hardly started.

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Shoot first, then talk【0709】

木头哥哥 — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 23:40:00 +0800

Bahrain's crisis
The government consults wary protesters
BILLBOARDS covering the Bahraini capital, Manama, shout, "Our Bahrain, our unity". If only.

After months of brinkmanship and repression by the government, talks with dissidents aimed at dealing with their demands for political change in the tiny Gulf kingdom were never going to be easy. Within hours of the opening ceremony on July 2nd, protesters chanting "dialogue is suicide" charged a police checkpoint on the city's outskirts. They were driven back by rubber bullets and tear gas, but sporadic protests have continued and tensions remain high.

This week's march was organised by the February 14th movement, a group of online dissidents, mostly from the Shia Islamic sect, who were behind protests against the Sunni royal family in the spring. Those early protests sparked a crackdown and exposed a deep sectarian divide. At least 32 people, mostly Shias, were killed. Hundreds were arrested and dozens convicted in show trials before a military court. Many say they were tortured in detention.

Anxious to restore calm, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa recently suspended the court and appointed an independent human-rights commission to investigate alleged abuses. He also invited dissidents to what he calls a "national dialogue". But many have dismissed the talks as a sham to appease America, which maintains a naval base in Bahrain. Talk of reconciliation is meaningless while hundreds remain in jail, activists say.

Yet, fearful of seeming to undermine efforts to find a political solution, moderate opposition groups, including Wefaq, Bahrain's largest Shia party, reluctantly agreed to participate. Many Shias, however, are angry that the party has lent legitimacy to the king's initiative. The talks' format has unsettled them further. Opposition groups could nominate just 35 of the 300 participants. They say they will pull out if the talks ignore their demands for the release of political prisoners and democratic reform.

Use the interactive

The scene is set for more sectarian tensions. Posters have appeared in Sunni strongholds warning the king not to give in to Shia demands. Pro-government delegates at the talks denounced Wefaq as agents of Iran plotting to bring Bahrain under foreign control.

But even as the dialogue flounders there are at least some grounds for optimism. The king's human-rights committee looks sound. Shia groups were initially sceptical but its head, Cherif Bassiouni, a UN war-crimes expert, seems determined to root out those responsible for abuses.

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